2023-08-18
Paper: The Wisdom of the Crowd
Author: Joseph Buchdahl
Mr. Joseph Buchdahl shared a smart way to figure out the margin, called Margin Weights Proportional to the Odds (pages 5 - 9).
Ever wondered how odds margin actually works? You’re spot on, the WOC 1 strategy by Mr. Buchdahl works really well with the MPO 2 method.
Now, let’s put aside Mr. Joseph’s strategy and think about this: what’s the fairest and most reliable way to calculate the margin? In my opinion, it’s considering all options.
Why, you may ask? Often, we turn to ensemble models to minimize variability while enhancing consistency. Rigorously testing diverse methods and retaining only those with minimal correlation can lead us to a more precise reality.
The process is quite straightforward: Gather the margins obtained from these three or less distinct methods and compute the average odds. It’s a remarkably simple approach that offers valuable insights.